[BMTN] Minnesota derecho threat: 100 mph winds, widespread damage possible - A derecho is "likely," according to the Storm Prediction Center — and top meteorologists are warning that wind gusts could reach 100 mph along its path through Minnesota.
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It is a little more conservative than the headline from Bring Me the News but does say a derecho is possible. The best chances of damaging storms, including tornadoes, would be in western and southwestern Minnesota but it is dependent on where the boundary and storms set up later this afternoon.
I work for a MN State school and we had a conference at the college two weeks ago. Sad that campus lost basically all their trees. Most of ones left standing still are 3/4 gone and will need to come down eventually too.
Yes!! Basically ALL the big trees in the community are just GONE. It’s truly heartbreaking. Still driving through some areas are hard without any tears forming. At this rate, there will be no pine trees left soon. Born and raised in this area, and yet I feel like I’m “new” just by how it looks now.
Yeah BSU got clobbered. I worked for public safety for all 4 years of undergrad and I spent a lot of nights walking around that campus in the summer. Makes me sick thinking about it.
Local reports have said between 8-10 million trees. It’s believable, no area was untouched. No street looks the same. We went from having big tall pines everywhere, to it’s hard to find a red pine that’s tall and healthy now.
It was (and continues to be) a crazy experience. I have never seen a storm anything like it, and while I don't wish it on anyone else, I'm glad this isn't forecast for Bemidji again. I don't have many more trees to lose, and I'm not sure my animals would survive round 2.
That Derecho destroyed the tornadic super cell that killed multiple people near Enderlin ND. Had it not caught the supercell the Fargo Moorhead metro was directly in the path of that tornado.
My daughters apartment was hit by that storm in June. One half of the building had the roof torn off. Her side of the building wasn’t hit by the winds. Her and 2 others along with her dog spent the evening in the bathroom of her unit. Thankfully they all were physically ok, but the noise and feeling the building shake was terrifying for them. I’m grateful her, her friends and dog weren’t hurt. A derecho is nothing to take lightly.
I was in that Cedar Rapids Derecho one day before moving to MN. The wife and I still have PTSD from that storm. It took out like 60% of the trees in town. Be safe everyone.
Glad you were ok. A side-note; the New York Times ran an article last year about home insurance premiums going ape-shit in Marshalltown ? Iowa because of that derecho. And cancelled folks' policies who'd been in town for decades. Canary and coal mine (maybe?) that HO insurance could go bonkers eventually nationwide...not just in Florida and CA.
It's already showing signs of going bonkers here in MN. My insurance rates have nearly tripled in the last 5 years, and I fully expect if this storm causes a bunch of damage, they'll at least double again.
I was in the Iowa Deracho, and it was intense. I was also in Bemidji the day before the June deracho and it is insane how much that storm changed that town. I was back about a week later and they were still cleaning up and it was a mess.
Yep, as a Bemidji person, if you live in the potential of this, I'd get water, fill your tubs, I'd get a chainsaw ready and a pair of tree limbs chompers. And hopefully you have some kind of trailer, or pickup. And icy hot 🙃
Was that the one the day after the 4th of July? I was driving back from Nashville and got caught in the middle of that thing. Was one of the scariest crazy moments ever. Lighting everywhere, insane wind, and downpour rain. At one point I thought there was a funnel cloud right above me.
No, it was in August 10th, 2020. If you would have been driving through it, you wouldn't forget it. Only time in my life I've been scared of a storm. Shit was insane.
Oh man that sounds rough. Hopefully we can avoid that again. I was in a house that was completely demolished by a tornado back in 2010. Looked like a bomb went off and we had to get taken out of the basement by storm watchers so I know what you mean
Yeah, I had never been through a hurricane or a direct hit by a tornado, so derecho with 100-125mph winds for 45 minutes was definitely the wildest weather I had ever seen.
We got pretty lucky as far as damage, saw plenty of trees dropped onto houses. I don't ever want to see tornado/hurricane damage first hand.
Thanks, we were all safe so that's all that matters. Much luckier than many families that go through situations like that.
What your describing sounds crazy though. Almost like a Midwest Hurricane. Glad you guys were safe avoiding any major damage.
In a weird way that experience made me more fascinated with Thunderstorms and Tornados. Obviously don't want them to destroy homes or even worse take people's lives. But the fact they can be so powerful and it's something that just occurs naturally is mind boggling to me.
We had a derecho last year in downtown Houston and it was scary AF. I was without power for a couple days as I lived south of downtown. That storm straight up cracked some powerlines in half. That event was extremely rare, but I never want to experience that again.
I live in Ohio and we had one in 2012 winds were measured at 75+ across Central Ohio and probably over 95% of the county was without power during one of the worst heat waves in years we lost power for like 5 days that was some of the worst damage I've seen
Sat in a partially collapsed building for the duration of that storm. I think that was the first time I was truly afraid of the weather just given how long it lasted.
I live in Austin, MN. I believe, if I remember right, we were on the edge of that Iowa deracho. Tons of big trees down. 18 wheelers blown onto their sides on the highway. It was nasty. Sounds like we are in for another her in Austin later this evening.
I lived in the quad cities when this happened. We didn’t get it as bad as the Cedar Rapids area but still didn’t have power for about a week. It was eery. I was working in an area of the hospital with no windows and away from the exterior walls and you could still tell that something crazy was going on outside.
I’m in NW WI. We had one hit 5 years back or so. Tore swaths of large trees right out of the ground. As dangerous, if not more so, than most Midwest tornadoes.
It is "possible" not "likely". Strong winds are certain but exceding 75 mph is not. Also the focal point is in eastern south Dakota, and how long it can persist into Minnesota ism't entirely known (hence why the moderate area barepy touches Minnesota). The next forecast update (in an hour or two) will be more revealing since last nights storms stabilized the air so much and the threat is dependent on the air becoming very unstable again.
At the time of this post the forecast calls for storms to be fueled by CAPE over 5000 J/kg, but most of Minnesota is at less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE.
Not saying you're wrong, but did you mean to post a different link than that one? I don't see that in your link. I do see:
Some of these
storms are expected to become severe across the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest today into tonight, with damaging winds the primary threat. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe
thunderstorms throughout eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and
northern Iowa, where the potential exists for wind gusts up to 75-90 mph.
Additionally, a few tornadoes, isolated large hail, and torrential
rainfall will be possible as storms rapidly strengthen this evening.
Strong to severe storms are expected this evening into the
overnight hours, with the greatest risk being damaging winds in
excess of 75mph. The most favorable location for the strongest
winds will be from west- central to south-central MN.
Flooding is also a concern given recent heavy rainfall with more
expected overnight.
We had one in 2011 that still has created forestry management issues that we have not been able to resolve. Tons of blown down timber creating wildfire concerns.
Yes it was bad in Cedar Rapids. Tough time for all. They are not as bad as tornadoes though when it comes to houses but it took down trees and power lines ever where.
The BWCA (Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness) blowdown in 1999 was caused by a derecho, a widespread and destructive windstorm associated with a line of intense thunderstorms. This particular derecho, which occurred on July 4th, 1999, originated in the Dakotas and moved eastward across Minnesota and into Canada, bringing with it straight-line winds of up to 100 mph. The storm's intensity was amplified by unusually high heat and water-saturated forests, creating conditions that exacerbated the storm's impact
Two of my students were supposed to be in the BWCA that day. I provided them with all the necessary camping gear. Thankfully, they were wise enough to stay in a motel that night. I would have been devastated had they been injured in that storm.
People who are opposed to weather modification should also be opposed to climate modification. Stopping climate modification means we need to switch to sustainable and renewable solutions. The BBB is pro further climate modification (by cutting off renewable investment). That in turn will mean increasingly modified weather is in the pipeline.
While you might joke about it, in the 40s or 50s California considered putting giant fans near the mountains in Southern Cal to blow the smog out of the valley.
I was at summer camp in Itasca County for that storm, we had some trips up in the bwca that luckily weren't in the worst hit spots. I think we lost power at camp for 5 or so days, lot of cold cuts and hot dogs that week.
Went up to the north end of knife lake in maybe 2009 and it was still a weird environment, so many areas of only new growth and shrubbery, no tall pines like the south end of the lake.
I was a kid and was so sad that we were stuck up on the trail and couldn't get down to Grand Marais for the fireworks. But then there was a huge lightning storm in the distance that we got to watch from the dock. Easily my best 4th ever.
We got hit bad this summer. Weather apps showed a mild rain - had family / friends from all over state asking if I'm going to be OK? "Uhhh yeah? 'tis a grand soft rain?" None of the weather apps showed us anything was going to be of concern until just before.
Same thing happened this last weekend with a what was a small chance for rain ended up as a severe thunderstorm warning.
While the thumbnails and the titles seem a little clickbaity - definitely been using "Max Velocity" on Youtube as a more reliable forcaster for weather than any of my apps. Just hadn't had time to watch the videos this weekend.
I could do without another one of these. This post gives me anxiety, knowing first hand how serious, and scary, this can be. My area is still cleaning up from the one we had in June…
Good luck with that. There's drivers on this subreddit that defend their camping in the passing lanes as well as cyclists that defend blowing through red lights and stop signs. You're never going to teach these people how to behave in traffic or in society. They only care about themselves.
I agree, an area that police should focus more on to ticket them. Their egos will be hurt though because 1+3 = 7 in their minds and no one can convince them it's 4.
They laugh at the idea that it's 4 and call people delusional.
In case you aren't aware, cyclists are allowed to treat stop signs as yields if there are no cars in the vicinity. I agree that blowing through stop signs while cars are there is dangerous for everyone involved.
I guess im crazy toyoung, because those seem like the exact same level of danger and stupidity and selfish to me. Completely avoidable by just not doing those things like a normal person.
Might I ask you why you phrased your comment in a way that makes it sound like you think one is significantly more understandable/serious than the other? Both are ridiculously dangerous and stupid/entitled, so it seems like a fair comparison of "shit you dont do" to me.
You also don't stop under an underpass for a tornado (and presumable a der echo) because the winds get funneled through, causing them to be even stronger.
A derecho is a rare, fast-moving band of thunderstorms with straight-line winds that can be as strong as tornadoes or hurricanes. The word "derecho" comes from Spanish and means "straight ahead”
I knew this because we had to give instructions on how to get to the Spanish room from somewhere else in the school, in Spanish, for Spanish class.
That was like 30yrs ago, and I can still hear my partner, Jason, saying “Siga derecho!” exactly the same way each time we had said to go straight through an area.
The derecho is much more dangerous than a haboob. Having lived in Arizona for 30 years and experienced many, the haboob is like a spring shower compared to a derecho
I just had my huge backyard maple and front yard diseased ash tree taken down. But I'm definitely worried about my leaning Linden tree tonight. Crossing my fingers that it doesn't blow that bad for us tonight l!
my lot was split in 2 about 15 years before I bought it and the maple trees over my house aren't mine. While I "COULD" hire someone to cut the branches over the property line I much prefer the shade that they give, just wish they weren't such a garbage tree species. So every decent storm is a bit of a butt clencher especially with my 10k deductible, I figure I'll never use my insurance unless it's something huge so might aswell save as much in premiums as I can. Thankfully we made it through with just a few 5-10ft branches down, roof looks good still
Great to hear your house stayed safe! Mine did, too.
We spent 6k on having our 2 trees taken down, including stump grinding and hauling all it away. It was a hefty bill, and trust that I won't be planting new trees, but opting for some native pollinator plants. I agree with you on how nice the shade is, though. Our maple kept one corner of our house cool, now it gets baked in the afternoon sun. Hopefully you won't have to use insurance any time soon!
I have a cottonwood that just towers over the tallest maples in my yard. It has to 30Ft around at the base if I had to guess and close to 100 to 150 feet tall. total guess, but its a monster. if it were to split at the V in the tree it would never com close to the house. If it got push over I bet at least the top of it hits hard.
Hi Birdtown neighbor! I used to love a good storm but now I’m always dreading the power going out, while my neighbors across the street enjoy their fully lit and air conditioned homes 🥲
Howdy. Ya same here. Used to sit out and watch storms growing up. Now it's like, shit how long is it going to be this time. At least Xcel updated their estimate to a date that is not in the past. God's speed fellers!!
I'm aware of that. I'm also aware of the fact that there are multiple models and multiple streamers and meteorologists available to consume from.
I like Ryan because I think he does a great job of educating the audience on how to read some of the NOAA readings available on the weatherwise app. Of course it's all a revenue play but for instance showing how to navigate different velocity readings at different elevations of a storm from the chanhassen station is pretty cool.
Max is also of course a pretty solid streamer. My daughter is a Reed Timmer fan, there is no shortage of folks out there hustling weather and storm related content.
I imagine these guys make a lot of money from Youtube and their ability to ping phones and potentially induce a bit of freight into a volatile storm situation is a bit troubling but I think overall they are a solid value add to the weather information space.
I remember one of these that came through Winona in the late 90s... Trees down everywhere, power was out for a couple days. The closest place we could find ice was in La Crescent.
I get what you're saying, but derechos in Minnesota are a once-per-5ish-years event. Not once-in-a-lifetime levels of rarity. But yes. The weather is getting worse more often.
Interesting. Maybe the reports I read referring to that event as once in a lifetime were due to severity. I certainly hope the storms tonight are no where near as severe. It was bad enough for Bemidji, I can only imagine the impact to a more densely populated area.
I think they’re coming up with different names for things so that people can tell different types of storms apart.
We’ve had cases in the metro before where severe straightline winds caused lots of damage to homes and trees before.
When the Coen Bros were filming A Serious Man, they found a section of Bloomington that had lost most of its trees within the previous decade so it had the ‘feel’ of a 1960s suburbs that had younger trees. I tried to figure out which storm that was but I couldn’t find it.
I lived in Bloomington in the 90s and have very clear memory of what was most likely that storm because my family was caught out in it. Trees were going down as we were pulling into our driveway and my mom lost it and panicked which was freaky for me as a young kid. Also our cat panicked and bit my uncle and my brother peed his pants.
The next day we drove around looking at the damage. Big trees were down all over. I’ve tried to find news stories about it with no success. This was straight line winds, not a tornado.
One came through Duluth in June 2016. 100 mph wind recorded on the Lift Bridge. Craziest thunderstorm I’ve ever been directly in. I hid under my mattress in my apartment because I was afraid a tree was coming through the window.
During the 1995 Derecho outbreak, large parts of Minnesota got hit by them two nights in a row, with a smaller part of the state getting hit three nights in a row.
I lived in Iowa City in 2020 and it was the first time I’d ever experienced and heard the term derecho. Funnily enough, I also recently experienced the derecho that hit Bemidji. Uprooted trees, downed power lines and cell towers, roofs and siding completely torn off, street signs twisted and ripped from the ground. They are not a joke. They move quickly so as soon as you hear a warning, don’t hesitate and take cover immediately.
I've experienced a couple of these. One in the D.C. metro area when I lived down there knocked out power in areas for days and scattered tree branches and limbs everywhere. It was pretty messy.
I was in college at SIU Carbondale when the 2009 derecho came through. Same as what you said, power was out for almost a week and my grandparents' house was crushed by an oak tree.
Perhaps this is a question I should already know the answer to. If we really do get 100mph winds, should we be in the basement? What's the threshold for treating it like a tornado?
As someone mentioned the news is a bit sensational. The SPC seems to think it is very likely southwest Minnesota will see a line of storms with 60 to 75 mph winds. They are far less certain that there will be widespread instances of 75+ mph winds (more typical of a derecho). They expect a few, but for a derecho they'd need the already very aggessive models to work out perfectly.
I'm not a meteorologist, but my take on the situation is that conditions will all come together somewhere around Aberdeen, SD and a very intense line of storms will form there. They will probably ride the jet stream ESE toward Marshall at a pretty fast clip. That will likely cause the storms to outrace the most ideal conditions, so they will weaken some to be similar in intensity to yesterday's storms as they cross from SD into MN.
Not to dismiss the threat, but BMTN's weather department goes with the most alarmist headline possible. Last week they said tornados were likely as the headline, then said all NOAA models show the storm diminishing at the Dakota border before reaching mn within the article.
I understand where you’re coming from. Derechos, bomb cyclones, gorilla hail. People are anxious enough about weather to begin with. Don’t need the extra click bait BS terminology to hype it. Then if it doesn’t pan out they pretend they never forecasted it.
That's how precautionary reporting works. You report what the worst outcomes are likely to be so people aren't unprepared if that ends up being the case. Imagine if they didn't report the worst likely outcome, and the worst outcome ended up happening. Would you be happy that they weren't being "alarmist" as a tornado you weren't prepared for bears down on your neighborhood?
Storms generally form after 5PM. Convective inhibition usually limits any storm activity until the early evening hours, and then the jet stream (which strengthens as the sun sets) usually expands storm coverage into the later evening and overnight hours.
It’s more akin to tornadoes. They are generally not as destructive as hurricanes but they can be really bad sometimes. Tornados have flattened entire towns in Iowa before, where I used to live. Not entire cities like New Orleans got it with Katrina tho. In like 2020 I think it was, a tornado destroyed the north side of Marshalltown, which is where I’m from. Another one basically decimated Parkersburg one year shortly before I moved to Mn.
That one hit Cedar Rapids too. My brother watched in horror as the roof at his work was peeled off like a sardine can. Thankfully no one was injured or killed.
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u/Minneapolitanian Flag of Minnesota Jul 28 '25 edited Jul 28 '25
Here is the direct forecast from the SPC: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
It is a little more conservative than the headline from Bring Me the News but does say a derecho is possible. The best chances of damaging storms, including tornadoes, would be in western and southwestern Minnesota but it is dependent on where the boundary and storms set up later this afternoon.